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Commentary, BlogThailandGuru.com > Commentary, BlogThis section is personal commentary. I have two separate pages for News You Can Use and website updates in chronological order. Most items noted in one of the three pages is not noted on the other two. For updates by email, so you don't need to check this page periodically looking for things, just request here. The views expressed here are solely those of Mark Prado, and may reflect the views of anyone else in my companies.
Air Pollution and Trash Burning
Air pollution doesn't come from just vehicles. It often comes from burning trash, and these can be toxic fumes, significantly so if you get close. About once per week, I see this happening somewhere as I drive down the elevated expressway. There is so much smoke you may think it's a whole house or building on fire, but it's usually just a small trash heap. A little bit of solid matter can produce vast volumes of gases. The fire heat causes it to rise, but then most of it falls slowly after cooling over a wide range of people, and still leaving enough in the air to cloud the sun. This is illegal, but difficult to police unless there is community participation. More than once, I have seen someone starting fires on trash heaps and so I drove there and stopped my car, took their photo many times, and threatened to turn them in if they didn't put out their fires. In this case below, they started to put out their fires. I also told them that if there are any more fires in the area in the future, I'd go to the police station with these photos of them. This might help reduce fires from their group. What more could I do ... I have mentioned this to police in the area, who have taken interest, and I did see some signs go up afterwards warning people not to start fires.
The sign below says "Official - No Trash Dumping Here". (Located near my office, where I'd contacted the police.) In March, 2008, the Bangkok Metropolitan Association (BMA) announced a few arrests of people burning trash, and that anyone starting a fire can be jailed up to 7 years and/or be fined up to 14,000 baht. The BMA asked for public assistance, as there were 441 recorded trash and brush fires in the past month in the Bangkok region. Many of these are trash from new home construction or renovation, whereby builders dump trash rather than disposing of it responsibly. It's especially bad in the northern suburbs where there is a lot of home construction. One way to put out trash fires is putting dirt on top. In Bangkok, this is easy, since the ground is soft and without rocks, but you need a shovel. (In this case, there was some construction sand, demolished powdery cement and aggregate.) Also, those big bottles of free water from the petrol stations helped in spots. In Asia, there are occasionally times when farmers burn old crop stalks which fills the air with smoke, and in fact has covered entire regions with smog. It has been outlawed and there are government efforts to suppress and control it. Region-wide events have happened a few times in my 13 years here, once due to Indonesian farmers burning fields, and the most recent being in northern Thailand due to the same in Burma, bringing out diplomatic pressures. Trash burning seemed to happen about once a week somewhere along my expressway drive, sometimes more often. This went down after some signs went up and the BMA made their public relations splash about it. However, this will probably require a continuing public relations campaign to snuff out some of the more resistant elements, which could be a few digital camera photos on the front pages of Thai newspapers of perpetrators, and photos of them in the police station, perhaps splashed on the front pages of Thai tabloids. Ex-Mafia Leader Opposes CasinosThere are several signs around town in March and April similar to the one below of an angry guy. What's this about?
This sign says that politicians promise things but don't do what they say. This politician is somewhat of a reformed mafia guy who won vote into Parliament. I'm generally for giving people a second chance, but I'm afraid his second swing, albeit different and reformist, may land him in trouble at the opposite extreme, and he may eventually be down to his third strike if he doesn't find a middle path. His name is Chuvit Kamolvisit. He made a fortune on female massage parlors, the luxurious kinds you find in Thai male entertainment districts. Much of his money was invested in property.
Within the first few years of the Thaksin government, he decided that he wanted to develop a property on the corner of Sukhumvit soi 8. However, there was a shopping strip there where he had signed longterm leases with tenants, and which allowed the tenants to construct their own shops. He simply sent in a large gang of thugs late one night to destroy and dismantle the whole place! This included not only the vendors' own nicely constructed shops but also their properties inside.
However, he did take a long look at himself. He settled by paying off the vendors, turned the property into a park instead of a commercial property, sold off his interests in massage joints, and started a career in politics as an anti-corruption agent, citing his experience in the mafia as his qualifications in understanding corruption top to bottom.
This sign is about the current Prime Minister, Samak Sundaravej, who is accused of corruption is a 6 billion baht fire trucks purchase while governor of Bangkok, a case which continues to dog the PM from multiple sources. When some elements of the current Samak government promoted the legalization of casinos in Thailand, and Samak went along with them, Chuvit came out against them in the mass media with very wise, good arguments. Buddhism emphasizes that everyone has character flaws and we must rise up to improve and reform ourselves. Nobody is born perfect, not even the original Buddha himself. We must admit our faults as the first step in reforming ourselves. Hopefully, Chuvit will set a good example.
Unfortunately, he looks like a hit man on the back of a motorcycle, so if you can't read Thai, you might interpret this wrong. Some mafia people and some highly corrupt businessmen historically have knocked off people who cause them problems, or who they just don't like, by having two guys on a motorcycle in a drive by shooting. His pointing finger looks like a gun. All of this contributes to an image of an egomaniac who has been slighted, and therefore becomes obsessed with revenge, as only an egomaniac would. (This is not unlike many foreigners in Thailand, especially in certain hot spots. Thailand tends to attract the worst sorts, and sometimes substance abuse in nightlife circles which changes their brain, plus their shady peer/reference groups, altogether amplifies their groupthink sociopathy. Then they become crooks and thugs, in deed.)
In any case, Chuvit sure gets a lot of attention!
Election Results and New Government, Mid-February UpdateThe dust has settled and things have been sorted out as regards Members of Parliament (MPs) being sworn in (January), and the parliamentary voting in of Prime Minister (PM). As expected, PPP party leader Samak Sundaravej was elected Prime Minister, and by early February he was sworn in. As soon as he was sworn in, he changed his tune and declared himself not Thaksin Shinawatra's nominee but his own man, much to the shock of Thaksin and his cronies. Samak followed up with serious disagreements with Thaksin and his cronies regarding political appointments, and even showed he was friends with some key military coup people who are not friendly to Thaksin. To top things off, Samak immediately declared that he intended his government to be in power for 2 to 3 years, and to *NOT* be in any hurry to pardon the 111 Thai Rak Thai MPs banned from politics for 5 years nor to do things to lead to Thaksin's immunity from prosecution under the law, indeed stating that the pardon would not happen until around the end of the third year. As regards the viewpoint of the opposition, Samak has turned out to be a whole lot better than most anyone else from the PPP who would be a realistic candidate for Prime Minister, in terms of who would dare to stand up against Thaksin and other cronies within their party. Samak's outspoken abrasive style means they're up against a loose cannon now and need to be careful they don't shake it to point at themselves! Given Samak's history of changing sides in politics according to the prevailing political winds of the moment, it was no surprise to many people to see this unfold, but precious few people even whispered such a prediction before the vote for Prime Minister and subsequent swearing in. Many sources reported that Thaksin had funded the PPP with the understanding that the parliament would vote to pardon the 111 MPs and Samak dissolve parliament within a few months, whereby those 111 MPs could then run for parliament. A common criticism was that Thaksin and the 111 MPs thought only about themselves, not what's best for Thailand. The flip side of that is many of the MPs in parliament would surely realize that if they pardoned the 111 MPs and dissolved parliament, then in the next election they would themselves no longer be in parliament, replaced by those they had pardoned. Who needs Thaksin's money when they have power now and thus other sources of money? With power and money comes freedom for themselves. "Birds of the same feather fly together." What is most important for the Thai economy is that the government be stable, active in debating and implementing some needed policy updates and new laws and regulations, and its policies predictable for business and investors. This has been achieved. There is not much difference in the policies of the leading political parties in Thailand. They are all very pro-business and have similar interests and outlooks. Thailand is not like many other countries which have socialist, labor, radical, or extremely nationalistic parties. Indeed, Thai politicians often switch parties like employees switch companies, with the main motivation seeming to be promotion opportunities along their same career path. (It wasn't always this way in Thailand's history, such as the socialist and communist political movements of the 1960s-70s, but the past 20 years have been nothing but pro-business parties of any significance.) Economic growth is expected to shoot up in 2008. After the military coup, Thailand's economic growth slowed to just 1.6%, much less than the region. A slowdown in the US economy is expected to reduce economic growth worldwide, but there is a springback element to Thailand whereby some wait-and-see investments will be unleashed. Notably, in the Bangkok property market, demand for new units slowed down after the coup, though ongoing construction which had already started tended to continue. This resulted in supply exceeding demand somewhat. Many new projects were delayed rather than started, and some suspended at an early stage of development. Many people expect the market to tighten up again later this year, after investor confidence resumes with a stable government. Bangkok is a most popular hub city for Asian expats. Prime Minister Samak's forte is infrastructure projects, for which he has already started seriously pushing for major expansion, including of the skytrain and subway. Election Results, December 24 updateFirst, three paragraphs of news in brief, followed by the analysis and commentary. (News:) Voting was completed on December 23, and the final results tallied by December 24. As expected, the new People Power Party (PPP), which consists of politicians of the former outlawed Thai Rak Thai party of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, won the most seats but not an absolute majority. However, they came very close to an absolute majority, getting 232 out of the 480 seats, whereby 241 would be a majority. (News:) The oldest party in Thailand, the Democrats, came in second with 165 votes, and third place was the old Chart Thai party at 37 votes. Fourth was Pua Paendin with 25, fifth the Ruam Jai Thai (Chat Pattana) Party with 9, then Matchima Thipataya Party with 7, and Pracharaj at 5. (News:) Several seats will be voided due to vote buying, so the 232 number and others will go down a little bit until a rerun in those constituencies. Commentary: The PPP won on the vote of the poor, especially from the impoverished in the vast northeastern (Isaan) region, plus the north where the exiled former PM originates and which is part of his power base. However, this is not the whole story. Many undecided voters said that in the end they chose the PPP because their stated policies were stronger, clearer, and more convincing. Thus, it is just as much a failure of the smaller parties, so that those who dislike the PPP shouldn't just blame the poor northeasterners. It is remarkable that the middle and upper classes mostly rejected the PPP, whereas the poor voted for them. However, I wouldn't conclude that this a huge class divide, because the PPP leaders are mostly high class, very sophisticated people. The former Thai Rak Thai party was very foreigner friendly, too. Notably, the vast majority of foreigners' Thai wives come from the poor northeastern region, and significant income derives from foreign men. Down the south Thailand peninsula, where Thai people tend to be in better financial condition, more independent thinking, and better educated on average, the Democrats have a preexisting established stronghold, where they won 49 of 56 seats, or 88%. The PPP won a mere 2 seats. However, the northeast has 135 seats, the most of any region by far, and the PPP won 101 seats equalling 75% of those, whereas the Democrats won only 5 seats (4%), with the rest going to other parties (about 21%), many of whom are ex-Thai Rak Thai party members. In the north, Thaksin's origin (Chiang Mai) and original power base, which has 75 seats up for grabs, the PPP won 47 (63%) and the Democrats 16 (21%), leaving 16% for all others. The central region (excluding Bangkok) was overwhelming Thai Rak Thai in the previous election, but this time the 98 seats were split with 39 PPP (39%), 35 Democrat, 18 for Chart Thai which originated here, and 6 for everyone else. However, in Bangkok, a very important district with 36 seats, the Democrats swept the central business and financial regions by a landslide, as well as the inner suburbs to get 26 seats (72%), and the PPP got some outer suburbs for 10 seats (28%). In the last election, the Thai Rak Thai party had won 32 (89%) of this region. Despite the regional and class differences in voting, Thailand tends to be an elitist and patronizing society at the power level, somewhat patrician, and fortunately, both the PPP and the Democrats are foreigner friendly and sophisticated. The main worry is simply conflict between the Thai elites, especially if PPP leader Samak becomes Prime Minister, as Samak has boasted will happen "for sure". The PPP has some internal conflict about this, but Samak is overwhelming. There is a very interesting part of the vote which indicates that the Thai people also are hesitant about Samak: While the PPP beat the Democrats 198 to 132 in voting for particular candidates, the result was different when voting for "Party List" -- 34 to 33. When Thais vote, they get two ballots. One is to vote for a particular person in their constituency, one of 400 parliament seats. The other is to vote for a party list, to make up the other 80 seats of the 480 seat parliament. Obviously, a lot of people who voted for one particular PPP candidate in their constituency also voted Democrat for general party. The Democrats actually got slightly more party list votes nationwide than the PPP (but one less seat due to regional variations), but they were close to the PPP in every region, too. This supports the analysis that the PPP was recruiting and preparing its individual candidates more effectively in each constituency than the other parties, but the people were not as enthusiastic about the PPP leader Samak. Chart Thai, second with 37 seats, wants its leader Banharn Silpa-archa to be Prime Minister, which has been widely discussed before the election among the elite and in the press, since Banharn would be an acceptable "compromise" Prime Minister to the military and most others, but that has not been negotiated successfully yet with the PPP. The Pua Paendin party, third with 24 seats, was long expected to be a PPP coalition partner, but there are some key leaders who had serious conflicts with exiled PM Thaksin, and the party's main ally of Thaksin failed to win his seat in Parliament. Still, they seem a likely PPP coalition partner. Other small parties have disgruntled ex-Thai Rak Thai people who had major rifts with Thaksin. Nevertheless, the lure of power and money will probably overcome all that, and it's a matter of who, or how many, parties join the PPP, and how stable the coalition is. And how stable the new PPP is... Remember the Thai Rak Thai party which won 375 seats in the last election, thereby needing no coalition partner, but fell apart not long after entering parliament... When politicians are brought together over power and money, not over ideology, there will be infighting over power and money, whereby ideology will not keep them together. This is the history of Thai politics, and probably the future. Meanwhile, business will go on as usual in the rest of the Thai economy, more or less. The main thing to look out for will be the revisions in the Foreign Business Act. All the damage to foreigners' confidence came after Thaksin dissolved Parliament and the military and their nationalistic allies started to take over ... see the Thailand Guru commentary going back to after April 2006, the nullified election and the beginning of the end for Thaksin (after he dissolved parliament in February). Many of those new regulations were actually in response to Thaksin's businesses using nominees, shell companies, and loopholes, but they affected many foreigners. But then there were the capital controls... Look how much economic growth slowed down under the military. With exports constituting 68% of Thailand's GNP and tourism another 6%, it's no wonder that most politicians are foreigner friendly! Even at the cynical very least, if they want economic growth and to stay popular... We can expect improvements from either a PPP or Democrat led coalition, but how much, and the details thereof, are another topic for another day. The main issue will be whether political conflicts within normally peaceful Thai society will escalate to extremes. Right after winning the election, Samak said to CNN that he would get amnesty for the 111 Thai Rak Thai politicians (thereby exonerating them of corruption and undermining true democracy in Thailand) and bring exiled PM back to Thailand. Democrat leader Abhisit Vejajiva quickly sent a message to Samak telling him he should think about Thai society more than 111 Thai Rak Thai party members and Thaksin. If Samak and the PPP go forward with that, then serious conflict is sure to arise in Bangkok. It is awfully naive to think that democracy and an election will solve problems in general. This election is highlighting the problems. It is now up to political leaders. At least the press is still free. Bangkok figures to be a power key in the checks and balances system. Election Update (as of December 20, 2007, before Dec 23 election)
It looks like the military coup has not been nearly as effective as they hoped. According to every pre-election poll, and it's now just two weeks before the election, the ex-Prime Minister's party will get the most seats in Parliament, but probably won't get an absolute majority. It's now a matter of whether they will be allowed to form a coalition government, or whether the lesser parties will band together to form a majority coalition. It is difficult to project seats because as of December 20, more than half the population is still undecided who they will vote for, and all parties are going into major home stretch oratory strategy.
I discuss the current status of Thai politics further down on this commentary page. However, I would like to say two things: First, in response to many emails, I must say that Thailand is safe for foreigners during this time. I've been here thru many government changes and "upheavals" in Thai politics. By world standards, Thai society is very peaceful. We even had a military coup without a single shot fired. "Mass protests" by Thai standards are quite small, a few thousand people maximum, in a few isolated places, with lots of advance notice. It is part of the nature and charm of Thai society. I don't think any foreigner could get hurt even if they tried their hardest! It's also "business as usual", as we foreigners have joked thru many transitions when we get worried phone calls and emails from abroad. Secondly, some party must give more serious (and convincing) attention to the needs of the poor northeast and north if the PPP phenomenon is ever to be resolved. The outlawed Thai Rak Thai party (now the PPP) had a lot of practical solutions, and really delivered on a lot of promises. While they paid protesters in the past to show up in Bangkok by the busloads, and are alleged to be a leading vote buying party, on the other hand nobody can win an election by just complaining about the PPP. There must be a positive, strong alternative with real solutions and a track record. It's easier to criticize and blame others (the northeasterners, or the PPP) than to show something oneself. The northeast is a vast region which holds 33% of the seats of parliament (imagine the shape of Thailand in your mind). The first time it voted consistently for the same party was 10 years ago when General Chavalit Yongchaiyut, originally from the northeast, quickly formed a political party (New Aspiration Party, now off the radar completely) and won the most seats, thereby given the first chance to form a coalition, as it did, shortly before the 1997 crash. Thaksin Shinawatra followed this pattern with the newly formed Thai Rak Thai party in the next election in 2000. The Democrats are very weak in the northeast, and it's the Chart Thai and Puea Pandin Party who compete with the PPP.
November 30, 2007
December Looking Back
Photo below: On top of a highrise down Ekkamai (Sukhumvit 63). Note that the roof in the foreground has no wall, rail, or anything, just a flat floor to the edge, so I crept up to near the edge slowly to take this photo. Wind was to my back but not too gusty for gutsy me. December 1 is here already, and this last month has been very eventful in the Thailand Guru operations:
I've been chipping away at updating section after section of the Thailand Guru website. Many pages were out of date going back 5 years and more! Some still have 7 digit phone numbers, which means they haven't been updated since the 1990s... How embarrassing... Over the years, I updated pages when I saw relevant new information, but I've never combed thru the entire website trying to proofread all old pages until now. It would be a thick book if printed out. However, I'm chipping away at it. Nevertheless, priority is put on the pages in highest demand by visitors, as well as the most important pages by my judgement, most of which I've always kept up to date. Those of lesser importance I will eventually get around to sometime in December and January. December is slated to be one of the most eventful in Thailand Guru history, not only because of the above, but also since I've directed some of my best staff to focus time on Thailand Guru and ssBKK.com Two things are notable:
As of late, I've been more willing to go out and meet people, especially in new and different places. Notably, I don't drink much alcohol (and when I have "a beer", it's usually singular) and hadn't for ages before, but I do enjoy a cup of tea, nice restaurants, good music and dancing, and of course a favorite pasttime: people-watching (just like my psychologist father). I hope that this website and ssBKK.com can together serve more kinds of people coming to Thailand to work and live.
September 23, 2007 2007 Thailand Election, and 1 Year Coup AnniversaryThese days, we are being reminded every day that full democracy is returning to Thailand, and I don't mean just those of us who read the newspapers. Party and candidate signs have been popping up all over, and today (Sunday) I was relaxing with my wife in our air conditioned house when the bass of loud music from far away transduced thru our windows and cement walls with impressive force, easily overcoming our daughter's dance music downstairs.
Heading out for lunch, I found the source, a acoustic cannon parked on the bridge right on top of klong Prapa, consisting of an 18 wheel truck with a battery of speakers directed right at my neighborhood, several hundred meters away:
After my car penetrated the waves, I went to my favorite WiFi restaurant along the main road, which has glass from floor to ceiling all around. There, I was reminded again of the upcoming elections by multiple retrofitted pickups and buses driving by with similar audio setups and big banners. So, that brings me to the topic of Thailand politics, of which I wish to discuss three issues: the effects of Thai politics on foreigners, what seems to be developing, and comments I've received over my coverage of ex-PM (thanks to the coup) Thaksin Shinawatra over the past 7 years on this website (and a little longer on my previous Thailand web pages). Effects of Politics on BusinessOver the past year since the coup on September 19, 2006, many businesspeople I've known have reported that business went down markedly around this time, and it hasn't recovered fully, blaming it on the coup and political instability. On the other hand, many other businesspeople have reported business up or still very good, but they tend to be in new kinds of cutting edge businesses, or established businesses oriented towards local Thai entities, longtime expat consumers, and/or the international market. The businesses that went down tend to be those dependent upon expats arriving to set up small businesses, or to just hang out in Thailand, and tourism was also down after the coup but not by a whole lot. I will explain why in a moment, but first I want to clear up some misperceptions. Business was actually reportedly down for many people going back a few months before the coup, and it was often blamed on the political instability caused by the parliament dissolution, the rigged elections, and the general instability of Thai politics, instead of what I analyzed to be the real causes: important new regulations and laws passed, and their trickle down effects. I want to make clear that I don't believe that the political instability was that big of a factor in most business downturns which happened, and I think other factors have influenced the downturn in many peoples business rather than the coup, mainly new regulations. Since 1994 when I arrived, I've seen several unstable governments, parliament dissolutions, elections, and changes in government. As a consultant to many companies and businesspeople, I had broad awareness of what is happening in the economy, and these political events were not very significant as regarded nearly all businesses I was exposed to. It was business as usual in Thailand. Likewise after the coup last year, it was business as usual for most people I know, without significant changes from the months before. Most serious analysts and big players saw it this way (though many of their lower employees and non-analyse contractors were generally fearful and talkative, as usual). The only parts of my business affected were those oriented to some kinds of newly arrived expats. Other parts of my business were not affected. Thailand Guru receives a lot of email from people asking if it's safe to be here, and whether there will be any radical changes. Clearly, there were people who changed their plans and decided to not come to Thailand, but I think they were a small minority. Nonetheless, I want to make clear: Thailand is a very safe country without violent social undercurrents (except the three southernmost Muslim provinces bordering Malaysia). The major political parties are all pro-business and very capitalist. The civil services of career government employees are pretty much the same all the time, far outnumbering the elite who come in and out of office, whereby the body of laws and regulations combined with career bureaucrats in each ministry generally run the show. There usually aren't major changes between the general policies of different governments. While misperceptions did influence some businesspeople as well as income from tourists, that's not enough to explain the drop-off in 2006-2007 in the businesses of many foreigners here. The businesses which experienced a downturn were those dependent on certain kinds of foreign consumers who were affected by some changes in Thailand regulations, either directly or indirectly (trickle down), primarily:
In my analysis, it is these non-coup items which have had the most impact on the businesses affected. But the coup did not cause any downturn in business across the board! The counter argument to this is Thailand's economy has been growing at only around 4% this year, which is lower than some other economies in southeast Asia, but Thailand's economy is also bigger (whereby bigger economies generally grow slower), and it grew at only 4.5% in 2005 (Thaksin's last full year in power with a stable government). Moody's ratings for Thailand are about the same as before the instability and coup. The currency has gotten stronger and the main Thai casino ... I mean the stock market has gone up and down (and up and down and ...) but sensational journalism and parroting over a beer aside, I still see lots of opportunities for go-getters, and not many good excuses for most fence-sitters and the shiftless. Political DevelopmentsThe political field has developed enough that we can start to see how the next election is likely to shape up. It appears that we will return to the times of ruling coalitions rather than one majority party. Remnants of the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party, which was outlawed due to election rigging violations and other matters, have reorganized as a new party called the "People's Power Party" (PPP) or "Palang Prachachon" in Thai, albeit without about 100 politicians who have been banned for the next 5 years, and of course without the exiled ex-Prime Minister in Thailand though he is still funding the "nominees" new party from exile. They look likely to win many seats in Parliament from the provinces in the northeast which have a lot of poor people, but not an outright majority like before. Exiled ex-PM Thaksin has stated many times that he wants peace and harmony in Thailand, and does not want to cause any problems. That's what he says. He has allegedly hired American spin artists as advisors long ago, in addition to his usual Thai partners, and tends to run a more American style campaign. However, his actions speak louder than his words. Despite being exiled and banned from politics, it is clear that he is pulling the strings from abroad. Any illusions of Thaksin following his pledge to pursue peace and harmony seemed to be blown away early in the current election campaign by his appointment of PPP party leader going to an extremely controversial veteran 72 year old politician, Samak Sundaravej, a hotheaded, vocal right wing politician. Why? Samak gets out the poor vote by stirring up people who follow that kind of leadership. He is an opportunist with a long and very controversial past such as with past military dictatorships cracking down violently against peaceful student protesters, quickly switching enemy to friend or vice versa according to current political winds, and being rather heavy handed. Samak's main asset to the PPP is that he is able to excite and get out the poor vote, and that is PPP's voting base. For example, when everyone thought Samak was a has-been politician with no hope and few remaining friends in politics, he rose up from the bottom of the polls for a shocking upset of the leading Thai Rak Thai candidate (Sudarat), the latter of whom was well known and respected in Bangkok, one of Thaksin's very closest longtime political partners, and who everyone thought would win for sure at the beginning of the campaign, for the important position of Bangkok governor, in 2001 near the peak of popularity for Thaksin and his party. Samak beat her by getting out the poor vote, Thai Rak Thai's own voting constituency, for Samak and his own party, embarrassing Thai Rak Thai! Now, Samak is a Thaksin friend who openly states that he is a political nominee of Thaksin, which has raised a lot of controversy. They are both acting like opportunists in a marriage with one aim: gaining power by election. (As an example of what a hothead he is, and why people of class have a difficult time imagining him as Prime Minister, during a press conference in mid-November 2007, when a female reporter asked him about some infighting in his party, he angrily avoided the question by asking her if she had sex the night before! Which of course bred headlines in the newspapers!!) If Thaksin is indeed employing American election advisors and spin artists, then you can expect relatively polite Thai politics to degenerate further, and Thailand to lose some of its charm. Some people will do anything to increase their power, and America being the lone superpower, this seems to hit its peak in Washington, D.C., where I lived and worked for 10 years. It is well known from polls that while the public says that it doesn't like negative campaigning, it still works in the final poll numbers. In this year's election, Samak is the epitome of a negative campaigner. It is widely believed that if the PPP gets back in power, they will pardon Thai Rak Thai leaders and abolish further investigations, something Samak has expressed, and then the TRT will return in force, again pitting the northeastern provinces against Bangkok and the south. A video of Thaksin was distributed in the northeast which has become a hot legal issue, given that political parties are not allowed to use the services of banned politicians. As reported by an opinion article in The Nation: "Thaksin dropped all pretence of being a mere bystander when he openly called on his supporters to vote for the newly formed party ... "Thaksin said that only a poll victory by the PPP would bring economic prosperity, political justice and democracy back to Thailand. And more importantly, only a government headed by the party would ensure that he could return home. There is not the slightest sign of remorse in the short video clip despite all the charges of corruption and abuse of power levelled against him and the polarising effect his five-year rule had on politics. It's the same old angry and vengeful Thaksin talking. "And one thing about Thaksin that obviously hasn't changed is his tendency to contradict himself. In the video clip he leaves no doubt that he is counting the days until he can return to the country to reclaim what he believes to be his rightful place. And yet in the Reuters interview, the former prime minister tried to play down fears he may want to return to power. "While he talks about reconciliation, every one of his messages from London has been full of bitterness and hatred. And while he implores everyone to make an effort to bring about political harmony after the election, he continues to pull the strings behind those in the PPP who have been raising the political temperature with their open hostility. "It's both ironic and ridiculous that Thaksin should be calling for a national unity government while doing everything possible to make sure the social and political discord that threatens the country's political future continues to be stoked...." In the unlikely event that the PPP wins an absolute majority in Parliament, then we could have another military coup or some other bizarre outcome in Thai politics. However, it appears that the PPP will get the most seats in Parliament but still short of a majority, and that other political parties will form a coalition to keep the PPP from choosing the Prime Minister and ruling Thailand by the same old Thai Rak Thai style. In my opinion, democracy by multi-party coalitions works better than two party rule. Too many corrupt projects and unpopular laws get passed along party lines when one party has the majority, just rammed down everyone's throats by strict party discipline. I don't believe in "just getting things done." I saw enough of that in the US. However, I should note that no matter which party wins, it is unlikely to make a significant difference to most foreigners living and working here. Thai people are not the kind to turn out in massive city-wide protests or to attack each other over politics, except in well organized and small skirmishes at specific places, which generally has quick police crackdown afterwards. Every party is pro-business and it's not a lot unlike politics in the USA. Parties change but it doesn't really affect the vast majority of the people significantly. If the PPP wins, then country people will be better off in the northeast, and there will be lots of political rumblings, but I doubt most expats will notice anything significantly different in the expat parts of Thailand. As has happened over the decades, there are rapid changes in civilian governments, and military governments, but the government career civil servants are a massive number who tend to ignore the people at the top and continue to run things as they see fit, for the most part. Big contracts go to cronies, lots of politicians get rich, but it's all at the noise level in the huge economy, and no politician wants to do anything to damage that. The economy is run mainly by purely private sector business, not the government, so it's not as if a change in government means big changes for us. Thailand Guru Coverage of ThaksinA lot of people new to Thailand want me to explain the Thaksin phenomenon, which means a small history lesson. It's beyond the scope of this commentary to give a long history, but a brief one is worthwhile, and I have updated my web page on Thaksin Shinawatra and the military coup which gives a brief history of Thaksin and contemporary Thai politics, and tries to put the main issues into perspective as regards the bigger picture of Thailand politics and society.
Click here for Click here for commentary from August 2007 and earlier. This section is personal commentary. I have two separate pages for Most items noted in one of the three pages is not noted on the other two.
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Photo from elevated expressway at Pathum Thani/Nonthaburi border, April 2008.
There was a huge outcry and Thaksin ordered the arrest of whoever was responsible, regardless of their socioeconomic or political status. Chuvit went on the run and was eventually arrested, his ego clearly bruised heavily.
These signs are part of his anti-corruption campaigns. It is important for someone to stand up aggressively against corruption, and Chuvit is well qualified to address it from his angle in Parliament and in the press.
Here, he tells the motorcycle taxi guy to stop in Bangkok because Chuvit needs to go there to reform it.
